Saturday, 2 January 2016
Predictions for 2016 (+ how'd I do predicting last year?)
I do this every year. Badly. Try my hand at futurology and miss the mark my a wide margin. Here are my predictions for 2015 made a year ago, and how badly I fared. Following that, let's all have a guess at what'll happen in 2016 shall we?
On Jan 1st 2015 I guessed...
1) Which classic TV show remake will be announced in 2015?
- WRONG. Though there are plans to remake dozens of shows including Space 1999, X Files, Mystery Science Theater 3000, and a half dozen classic sitcoms inc The Good Life, Porridge, Up Pompeii, Are You Being Served and Keeping Up Appearances. And there's the Dads Army movie. I predicted not a one of these.
2) Which TV show will be cancelled in 2015?
- WRONG. Though now the BBC1 news at ten is getting extended so the two shows overlap, that could happen this year.
3) Who will surprise by getting their own hit TV series?
- WRONG. Where did I pull that random idea from?
4) What new movie franchise will be announced/made?
- WRONG. In previous years I've had a stab at old comic characters I like and punted them for big screen glory. I am never right, though if I'd suggested The Numskulls I would have been spot on.
5) How much will litre of petrol cost in Dec '15 (currently approx £1.15)?
Up to £1.30
- WRONG. Down to 99p.
6) Who will win Edinburgh Comedy Award 2015?
a) Best act? b) Best newcomer?
a) Funz and Gamez b) A Cambridge Footlighter
a) - WRONG, it was Sam Simmons
b) - WRONG, it was Sofie Hagen
7) Celeb on the Slab?
Prince Philip, doing Top Gear's Star In A Reasonably Priced Car
Ha ha ha ha - WRONG
8) Who will win the 2015 Eurovision Song Contest?
- WRONG. Sweden.
9) Who will put themselves forward to be Mayor of London?
- WRONG. So far we have Zac Goldsmith & Sadiq Khan to choose between.
10) Who will be confirmed as showrunner for season 10 of Doctor Who?
Still Steven Moffat
- Looks like I'm RIGHT on this one, though I'd have been happy not to be.
11) Who will be a surprise candidate in the 2016 US Presidential Election?
- WRONG. Donald Trump would have been a better guess.
12) Who will be Labour leader at end of 2015?
Still Ed Miliband (or, wild card guess, Ed is assassinated before the election so Chuka Umuna becomes new leader and Labour win by a sympathetic landslide)
- Soooooo WRONG. And anybody who predicted Jeremy Corbyn this time last year wins Futurology hands down.
13) Result of the 2015 UK General Election?
Labour party in coalition with SNP, Greens, Sinn Fein and Liberals
- Oh dear, so so so WRONG again. But, given that all broadcasters and pollsters had it wrong right up until the polls closed on the day, I'll forgive myself.
14) Surprise country to have a revolution/uprising?
- WRONG. Were there new revolutions in 2015 or just the same ones going on? I forget.
15) What will be surprise invention/technicological advance?
Silicone chips inside our heads that switch to overload
- WRONG. I seem to have been taking neither the questions nor the answers seriously.
16) Will average UK house prices rise or fall by Dec '15?
Rise by 5%
- Approximately RIGHT. The BBC in September said it looked like it was going to be 6%, beating predictions of 3%. So nobody knows, by the sound of it.
17) Biggest scandal
The Guardian turns out to have conspired in big cover-up in the 1980s
- WRONG. Unless you can find otherwise. All I get when I google the subject is the Grauniad reporting other newspapers conspiring in big cover ups in the 80s.
18) Band to split up?
- WRONG. Should've said One Direction.
19) Biggest weather news
Wettest summer in 20 years
- WRONG (but not far out, it was the wettest in 3 years, and that last one had been the wettest in 100)
20) Christmas Number 1
The last ever X Factor winner
- WRONG again. This year's X Factor winner, from the least-watched final ever, whose name no-one can remember already, got to number 9 in the charts and was down to number 12 by Christmas. I may be right about it being the last ever X Factor, but we await that announcement still.
So, I got around 2 out of 20 right. Pathetic, but pretty much par for the course.
Here, should you be interested, is how well I did predicting 2014, how well I did in predicting 2012, and here's the same for 2011.
So, what does 2016 hold? Instead of the list from above, here are Ten Things I Would Like To See In 2016:
1 - Donald Trump gets excommunicated by the Republican Party so has to stand as an independent and loses humiliatingly.
2 - Jeremy Corbyn becomes increasingly popular, winning byelection after byelection and the support of the entire country.
3 - Steven Moffat passes on the role of Doctor Who showrunner, amicably, and carries on writing new episodes.
4 - Drones get strictly regulated following a fatal accident (due, probably, to someone doing something like this).
5 - ISIS become unpopular among their supporters and just, kind of, fizzle out.
6 - BBC Four runs out of 1970s pop groups to make documentaries about.
7 - Eastenders goes a whole year with no-one dying.
8 - Marvel superhero movies go all unpopular and plans are announced not to make any more (for a while).
9 - There won't be a referendum or general election of any sort in the UK.
10 - Fingers crossed 2016 will be less terroristy than 2015, and we're all happy and bright by the end of it.
Happy New Year