Tuesday, 18 April 2017

General Election Prediction

Okay, let's get our clueless predictions in now. My guess, based on no facts whatsoever is the result will be:

Conservative 306 (down 24)
Labour 240 (up 8, inc seats in Scotland)
Lib Dem 36 (up 28, inc seats in Scotland)
UKIP 0 (as is)
SNP 50 (down 6)
Greens 2 (up 1, gaining a Bristol seat)

I also predict Jeremy Corbyn still won't resign, using the increased vote as an excuse, and that Theresa May forms a minority administration not a coalition.

Less than two months to see how wrong I was.

PS: It all comes down to the vagaries of the First Past The Post system, and voter turnout. That's why my stab-in-the-dark predicts Lib Dem gains, as recent polling suggests they could retake seats they lost following the coalition, and no UKIP gains. Also a good few SNP seats are marginals that could go Lib Dem or Labour. Labour increasing their total number of seats overall does defy all statistical predictions, very true. Exciting, ain't it?

The biggest playing field is the 49 seats lost by the Lib Dems & the 50 gained by the SNP at the last election. That's 99 seats* very much in flux, which could totally swing the outcome. (*I know it's not 99, shut up. 99 sounded nice.) The only thing you can be sure of is that the SNP can't gain more, and the Lib Dems surely can't lose more. But again, what do I know?

PPS: PS: I've just realised my result would give Jeremy Corbyn a potential coalition government with the SNP, Lib Dems, Greens and Northern Irish parties. Ha ha. Didn't see that coming.

Comic Art Masterclasses coming up in 2017:

2017 TOUR
Feb 15 - Buxton Pavilion Arts Centre Studio 
Feb 17 & 18 6.50pm - Kayal, Leicester Comedy Fest
March 9 - Aberystwyth Arts Centre
March 15 & 16 - Dram! Glasgow Com Fest
March 23 - The Bill Murray, London
Apr 1 - Rotherham Comedy Festival
Apr 6 - Victoria Theatre Halifax
Apr 8 - Rondo Bath
Apr 13 - Hexham Queen's Hall
Apr 22 - Swindon Arts
Apr 27 - Stroud Subscription Rooms
Apr 28 - Merlin Theatre Frome
Apr 29 - Perth Concert Hall
May 1 - Chiddingstone Castle Kent
May 5 - Artrix Bromsgrove
May 6 - Stafford Gatehouse
May 13 (4.30pm) & May 14 (5.30pm) Komedia Brighton
May 19 - Carriageworks Leeds
May 26 - Aberdeen May Fest
June 2 - Eden Ct Inverness
June 15 - Crescent Arts, Belfast
June 20 - Grassington Festival, Yorks
June 23 - Hertford Comedy Festival
June 24 - Ludlow Fringe
August 15 - 17 Camden Fringe

No comments:

Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...