Friday, 9 June 2017

Gloaty McGloatface - my Election Predictions revisited

So, how did my election predictions from April 18th pan out? I predicted, purely off the top of my head:

Conservative 306 (down 24)
Labour 240 (up 8, inc seats in Scotland)
Lib Dem 36 (up 28, inc seats in Scotland)
UKIP 0 (as is)
SNP 50 (down 6)
Greens 2 (up 1, gaining a Bristol seat)

I also predicted Jeremy Corbyn wouldn't resign, and that Theresa May would form a minority administration not a coalition. Here, trawled from the Facebook archive, are some of the comments that were made on the day.

Gordon Rennie I like how you think Labour will gain seats, when their poll numbers suggest they're an electoral basket case at present.

Tim Read I would love something like this to be true, but I am not hopeful.

Clive Greenwood Nope I predict an overall majority for Tories, Labour will be a wipeout and Corbyn will be forced out- Momentum will be expelled and join with the SWP and pester Saturday morning shoppers to sign petitions for years, LibDems claw a few seats back UKIP ...See More

Steve Bright Labour in Scotland, once THE party, is now deader than a dodo. I see no signs of resurrection under Kezia. The Libdems have one MP and he should have resigned after the last General Election. The one Tory is about as popular as herpes. Libdems do not represent the only Remain party in Scotland - the SNP is the only good bet for that. Walkover!

Jools Constant There will be major protest votes against TM and I see major gains for lab & Lib Dem's with no overall majority for anyone.

Alan Cowsill If only... can't see labours vote improving under Corbyn as a lot of remainders will be switching. The Tory remainers will be interesting.... unfortunately I think may will win by a landslide. The best I can hope for is a resurgent lib dem pact with labour

Rupert Wainwright No way could we LibDems ally with Labour. Labour were collectivist, misogynist traditional racists in the 80s when I first got involved and seem all too prone to go back to tradition now. LibDems are mostly more pro individual freedom and anti-collectivist, than anti-Tory, even if the traditional left has now caught up on more enlightened social attitudes.

Austin Flynn · Friends with Steve Bright
I think Labour under Jeremy will do better than predicted. The SNP appear to be turning into a parochial party, frightened to go for the jugular and concentrating on attacking Labour, which, in itself is funny as they do not appear to appreciate that the Tories are the villains. Strange.

Finlay McAllister I'm torn. I support Corbyn and believe that his wider support has been grossly underestimated, but am sceptical of the either/or Momentum argument - guess I'll vote 'tactically' as I have in most elections, despite the slap in the face I got last time but one :/

Cloodleff Choodlepmoodlen You're probably right, although on those numbers, a three way Lab/SNP/LD coalition wouldn't be impossible.

Allan Toombs · Friends with John Freeman and 2 others
I expect Labour to lose 10-20 seats, primarily to Lib Dems but a few to the Conservatives. Is it also possible that some of the dissenting voices in the Tory party will be replaced with candidates who are enthusiastic Brexiters?

And the actual result? Turns out I was way closer to the mark than almost anyone else thought (Jools Constant got the result closer than anyone).

At time of writing the result is:

Conservative 318 (I said 306)
Labour 261 (I said 240)
Lib Dem 12 (I said 36)
UKIP 0 (spot on)
SNP 35 (I said 50)
Greens 1 (I said 2)

So my optimistic guess underestimated Labour's success, and also underestimated the SNP's fall from grace. Meanwhile the poor old Lib Dems were my worst guess. Nick Clegg's lost his seat and their big bounce back may have to wait quite a while. 

Allow me, if you will, a wee gloat.  

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