Thursday, 22 December 2011

Not-stradamus. How my 2011 predictions turned out.

Paul Cornell, on his blog, has set the the fun game of guessing what will happen in the next year. He's set 30 questions, and lots of people have had a stab at being Nostradamus. Below are my guesses. But first let's have a look back at my own predictions for 2011 and how they panned out.

MY PREDICTIONS FOR 2011 and how they panned out. So far.

The website does a nice line in Novelty Bets. I didn't put any money on, but just for fun what did I predict for 2011?

Bet: Who will replace Chris Moyles as Radio 1 Breakfast DJ?
I predict: Fearne Cotton 12/1
Result: Chris Moyles stayed in the job

Bet: First band to officially split in 2011?
I predict: McFly 8/1
Result: Wrong.McFly are together and two of them won reality shows. I was so close.

Harry Judd from McFly, officially not splitting in 2011

Bet: Who will win London mayoral election in 2012?
I predict: Boris Johnson 8/11
Result: Not happened yet

Bet: Who Will Play Alex Hurricane Higgins in his biopic?
I predict: Simon Pegg (no odds given, so 200/1?)
Result: No biopic yet

Bet: Who will play the next James Bond?
I predict: David Tennant (no odds given, so 500/1?)
Result: Not announced yet

Bet: Who will play Holden Caulfield in the film of Catcher In The Rye?
I predict: The fat kid out of Mad Men (Sally's friend?) No odds given, so 200/1?
Result: Not announced yet

Bet: Who will win Oldham & East Saddleworth byelection?
I predict: Labour 1/6
Result: Yes, I was right.

Bet: Who will win the Nobel Peace Prize 2011?
I predict: Vladimir Putin (no odds given so 100/1?)
Result: Wrong. It's a bit like I wasn't taking this category seriously. The three joint winners were Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Leymah Gbowee, and Tawakkol Karman.

Bet: Which volcano will be next to erupt?
I predict: Totally unheard of one that's not erupted for 200 years. (no odds given, so 50/1?)
Result: Sort of right. The first to erupt in 2011 was Grímsvötn, which was totally unheard of. It is, however, Iceland's most frequently active volcano.

Bet: Next actor to play Superman?
I predict: Milo Ventimiglia (no odds given, so 200/1?)
Result: Wrong. Henry Cavill? Who the hell is Henry Cavill?

Bet: Who will win US Presidency in 2012?
I predict: Sarah Palin 10/1
Result: Not happened yet (but my candidate's already out of the running)

Bet: Who will be the next BBC Trust Chairman?
I predict: Joan Bakewell (no odds given, so 100/1?)
Result: Wrong. It was Chris Patten.

Bet: Who will win Eurovision?
I predict: Croatia (no odds given, so 10/1?)
Result: Wrong. It was Azerbaijan. Croatia didn't even make the final 25, getting knocked out in the semi finals.

Bet: Who will host the Brit Awards?
I predict: Russell Brand 6/1
Result: Wrong. It was James Corden. He wasn't bad.

Bet: Will there be a White Christmas in London?
I predict: No. (You get 11/4 on it being white, what's that make non-white?)
Result: Not happened yet, but not looking likely.

So, my predictions for 2011, putting aside the ones that haven't happened yet, shows I have a Nostradamus rating of Minus 5, edging toward a Minus 7 or 8. In fact I only got one thing out of 15 completely right. And on the plus side, I didn't put any money on those bets, therefore saving myself a minimum of £15 and a potential fortune. Well done me!


THIS TIME NEXT YEAR GAME, Paul Cornell's 30 Questions
(You can join in at Paul's blog, he is inviting your replies and, I think, offering a prize to the person who turns out to have guessed closest next year< In bold below are my stabs in the dark.)

1: Name *one* musical act, other than any that took part in (that is, was a contestant in) TV talent show The X Factor, that will have a UK Number One single (on the standard chart the BBC use) between February 1st, 2012 and December 13th, 2012.
Jesse J

2: Who will be the British Prime Minister at midnight on December 12th, 2012?
David Cameron

3: Who will be credited as writer on the last issue of Action Comics that comes out before December 13th, 2012?
Paul Cornell

4: Name *one* writer (apart from Steven Moffat) who will write a script in the next season of Doctor Who (specials and charity episodes don't count).
Paul Cornell (I really really hope)

5: Will life on another planet (not necessarily intelligent life) be generally regarded by the scientific community as having been discovered before December 13th, 2012?

6: Which book will win Best Novel at the 2012 Hugo Awards?
I Partridge by Alan Partridge

7: What about Best Dramatic Presentation: Short Form at the same Awards?
Misfits, series 3 final episode

8: Will any of the 2012 Academy Award (Oscar) nominees for Best Picture be (within a generous description) in the genres of science fiction, fantasy or horror?
Yes (War Horse and Hugo)

9: Name *one* historical figure (apart from H.G. Wells) whose name will be mentioned in a new episode of Warehouse 13 broadcast in the UK before December 13th, 2012.
President Nixon (Until I read this question I'd never heard of Warehouse 13).

10: In the three Test Matches played between England and the West Indies in May and June 2012, which England bowler will take the most wickets?
Sorry, I'm Scottish and therefore do not recognise Cricket as a sport.

11: Will any more missing episodes of Doctor Who be discovered before December 13th, 2012? (I know some of you are just going to say 'I hope so', but only concrete answers get you points.)

12: Name *one* author with a story in the June 2012 cover dated edition of Isaac Asimov's Science Fiction Magazine.
Paul Cornell

13: Name *one* (with all episodes existing) Doctor Who story that will still not have been released on DVD (in the UK) by December 13th, 2012.
Dimensions In Time, Children In Need Special

14: Name *one* (new, not reprint) Marvel Essentials volume that will be released (in the USA) between June 1st, 2012 and December 13th, 2012. (You don't have to give a volume number, just name a series.)
Ghost Rider 2099

15: Which musical act will provide the main title theme song of the 2012 James Bond movie, Skyfall?

16: Will the physics community generally accept (to what they call a 5-sigma level of uncertainty) the discovery of the Higgs Boson before December 13th, 2012?

17: And for that matter, will they, in the same way, before the same date, accept that neutrinos (in that particular well- reported experiment or any other) can travel faster than the speed of light?

18: Name a DC New 52 comic (one of the 52 launched under that banner) that won't have an issue released in August, for whatever reason. ('They'll all have one' is allowed, and what I'd hope for.)
Frankenstein Agent Of Shade

19: Other than The Lizard, name another villain who'll appear in the movie The Amazing Spider-Man. Or will there not be any other?
Man-Wolf / John Jonah Jameson

20: In what month of 2012 will the Archbishop of Canterbury retire? Or not this year at all?

21: Name *one* song performed or heard in Glee in a new episode shown between March 1st 2012 and December 13th, 2012. (Let's go with UK broadcast dates, which are just a couple of days after the US ones.)
Little Does She Know (originally by the Kursaal Flyers)

22: Of the actors who have played the Doctor (in any medium), who will have the most Twitter followers at midnight on October 1st, 2012? (Genuine accounts only. Anyone within 100 either way gets a point.)
Colin Baker

23: And how many Twitter followers will I have at midnight on August 1st, 2012? (Don't be rude, now. Same rule as for question 20.)

24: Which country will top the official medal table at the end of the London Olympic Games in 2012?

25: Will Captain Britain appear in at least a single panel of any new Marvel (US) comic released in September 2012?

26: Who will get the Republican nomination for US President? (Just a name, please, not an essay.)
Mitt Romney

27: Will Kate Bush release any new music (that is to say, any track that has so far been unreleased) between January 1st 2012 and December 13th, 2012?

28: Will Peter Dinklage's character Tyrion Lannister slap anyone onscreen in Season Two of Game of Thrones?
Yes (I have never seen Game Of Thrones)

29: Will the makers of the upcoming (2013) Star Trek movie reveal that the character of Khan will be appearing in that movie before December 13th, 2013?

30: Who will win this year's Boat Race? Oxford or Cambridge? Or will both sink?


More prediction fun: 7 Predictions for 2011 written for the New York Times in 1931.

Thomas Edison's Predictions for 2011 written in 1911. He appears to predict the Kindle.

Some spectacularly bad predictions for 2011 from a "leading psychic". Baby for the Obamas? Hilary Clinton to win Nobel prize? Sarah Palin divorce? First successful brain transplant? French to develop first bionic eye? Playboy mansion to burn down? Hollywood starlet to give birth to a dwarf? It's good to find someone whose clairvoyant powers are worse than mine.

Some rubbish Foreign Policy predictions from 2011.

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