Kev F's Theory of #Edfringe Flyering™ tested

TEST DAY 1:  Mon 24 August, 11.30am.

I'm into the final week of the show, with only 7 gigs left to go. We're beating last year's totals and the audiences have been great. But now I have one niggling worry left - tomorrow's show (Tues 25).

Until a couple of days ago, advance sales for Tuesday Aug 25th (our final Tuesday) stood at zero. They've since crawled up to 4. But given that most other days have been starting off in the 20s or 30s, and the lowest figure we've ended up with was 41 paying customers, and that was on the second night, we've been doing great guns. Lots of sellouts, and most shows pipping last year.

But 4 tickets for tomorrow (and only 17 for tonight, now I think of it). Bloody hell, we've got some selling to do. Bear with me, I'll let you know how it panned out.

Spotted in Edinburgh, a Tramps Nest

FLYERING SNAPSHOT Mon 24/8/15
11.30am, sales stand at:
Mon 26
Tues 4
Weds 23, Thu 10, Fri 23, Sat 22, Sun 6 (Total 1446)

2.15pm After 2 hours flyering (1..30-1.30) sales are:
Mon 28
Tues 4
Weds 23, Thu 10, Fri 25, Sat 24, Sun 6 (Total 1452, so up by 6, of which 2 for tonight)

5pm After 2 more hours flyering (2.40 - 4.40) sales are:
Mon 31
Tues 4
Weds 23, Thu 12, Fri 25, Sat 24, Sun 6 (Total 1457, so up by 5, of which 3 for tonight)

7pm After a half hours flyering, inc the One Man Breaking Bad queue (5.15 - 5.45) sales are:
Mon 40
Tues 7
Weds 25, Thu 12, Fri 25, Sat 24, Sun 6 (Total 1469, up by 12, of which 9 for tonight)

Now, Kev F's Theory of Flyering ™ dictates that 1 hour's flyering equates to 10 bums on seats. Today, so far, I have done 4.5 hours flyering, which should give me 45 punters. So far (as of 7pm) our total is up just 25, of which tonight is up 14. Let's see how the next 3 and a half hours develop...

9.10pm  We're on Mon 52, Tues 7 (total 1489, up 20, of which 12 for tonight)

And the final total was
Mon 64
Tues 7
Weds 25, Thu 12, Fri 31, Sat 24, Sun 6  (Total 1501)

So the total went up, in the day, by 55, and for the night itself by 38. Does this vindicate Kev F's Flyering Theory? Possibly. Except that there have been days, like for example this most recent Friday when the total went up by 60 in a day, and I definitely didn't flyer for 6 hours; and Saturday, when I did no flyering whatsoever and the total still went up by 34. Maybe nobody knows anything.

Susan, a Big Issue seller for whom I bought food and sat and chatted with the other day. My good deed for the week.


TEST DAY 2: Tues 25/8/15
2pm  Tonight = 9 (out of 1507)
6pm (after 3.5 hrs flyering) = 23 (out of 1526)

Kev F's Theory of Flyering™ suggests that should end up as 35 bums on seats, so a total of 1542. Let us see...

8.30pm = 29 (out of 1537)
9.30pm = 31 (out of 1541)
Final = 37 (out of 1547)

So 3.5 hours flyering added 40 sales total, 28 to that night's show.

TEST DAY 3: Weds 26/8/15
3pm  Tonight = 33 (out of 1547)
5pm (after 1 hr flyering) = 33 (1547)
6pm (after 20 min flyering inc BBq) = 33 (1547)

KFToF™ predicts 13 b.o.s., total 1560. Let's see...

9.30pm (after 45 min flyering, NB evening crowds are much more resistant, cockier) = 35 (1549)
Final = 40 (out of 1557)

So 1.3 hours flyering added just 10 sales total. Three days in a row backing up Kev F's Theory Of Flyering™ pretty much to the letter. Today, Thursday, starts the day at just 15 sales. What to do...?

TEST DAY 4:  Thurs 27/8/15
1.30pm Tonight = 15 (out of 1561)
3pm (1hr flyering, mostly Royal Mile) = 15 (1563)
6pm (90 mins flyering, v quiet) = 17 (1565)

KFToF predicts 25 b.o.s. added in the day, total 1586. Let's see...

8pm = 19 (1567)
9pm (after 45min good flyering) = 22 (1573)

KFToF predicts 32 b.o.s. added in day, total 1593

9.30 = 24 (1575)
10pm = 26 (1577)
Final = 29 (1581) Well below Kev F's Theory Of Flyering prediction

TEST DAY 5 Fri 28/8/15
2.30pm  Tonight = 39 (out of 1583)
4pm (after 1hr flyering) = 43 (1589)
6pm (after 45min flyering) = 45 (1593)

KFToF predicts 17 added in day, total 1600)

8pm = 48 (1596)
9pm (after 45 min flyering) = 50 (1598)
Final = 50 (1598)

CONCLUSION

Day 1 Mon 24
Flyering: 4.5 hrs.
Bums on seats added to that night: 38  / overall: 55

Day 2 Tues 25
Flyering: 3.5 hrs.
Bums on seats added to that night: 28  / overall: 40

Day 3 Weds 26
Flyering: 1.3 hrs.
Bums on seats added to that night: 7 / overall: 10

Day 4 Thurs 27
Flyering: 3.25 hrs.
Bums on seats added to that night: 14 / overall: 20

Day 5 Fri 28
Flyering: 2.5 hrs
Bums on seats added to that night: 11 / overall: 15

Day 6 Sat 29
Flyering: 3 hrs
Bums on seats added to that night: 38 / overall: 41

So there appears to be some correlation between flyering and results, but on difficult days when the streets were very light on punters, flyering become noticeably less effective.


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