As the lockdown for the Covid-19 / coronavirus pandemic continues (while nobody seem quite to agree what to call it, disappointingly nobody has followed my lead and taken to calling it Miley), I have probably never spent so much time looking at graphs and statistics. No, not even when I'm looking at my Edinburgh ticket sales.
But one graph that has been slightly obsessing me is the one above. Sweden vs the rest of Scandinavia.
You see Sweden has made a big deal of lagom, their cool-headed and measured approach to the crisis. To which end, they've not shut down pubs, restaurants, venues and schools, or kept people from moving around or restricted public transport. Which, if it sees them weather the storm without panicking people and collapsing their economy, is wholly admirable.
My graph-obsession began on the weekend of March 30th when Sweden's lead epidemiologist, Anders Tegnell, said: “The incline (in infection & death rates) in Sweden is less steep than in many countries and that’s exactly what we’re trying to achieve". And I had a bit of a "hold my beer" moment. Cos I'd already noticed that Sweden's rate of covid-related deaths was going up faster than Denmark and Norway's, both of which countries were on full lockdown. And I'd seen a graph that demonstrated it. So I took a screen grab of the graph and, having immediately lost the source, took to updating it myself every day when the new figures came in.
One week later, by April 8th, Sweden is reporting 96 deaths a day (114 yesterday) bringing their current total to 687 deaths. Whereas Denmark is only on 218 total deaths, rising at 15 a day, and Norway is on 93 deaths, just 4 a day. Which suggests Sweden has a situation where deaths are rising at a much higher rate per head of population than its neighbours, and likely to get worse. And the graph looks like Sweden's figures are positively sky rocketing in comparison.
However Sweden is still way way lower in total than the UK, and indeed most of Europe. It's number 20 in the list of countries for total cases of coronavirus. So quite possibly it is doing exactly the right thing and will manage fine. In which case they will have total gloating rights over the rest of Europe, whose economies they'll justifiably be able to buy and sell when the dust settles. I shall continue to keep track of their progress.
In the meantime, Coronavirus smugness rights go to New Zealand who, by dint of cracking down almost immediately, currently have recorded a total of only one death in the whole country related to Covid 19. Preeettty good.
April 9 - Sweden's death toll is up 106 to 793, Denmark up 19 to 237, Norway up 0 so still at 101.
April 10: Sweden 870, Denmark 247, Norway 108.
April 11: They can get cocky today. Sweden only up 17 to 887, Denmark up 13 to 260, Norway up 4 to 117 (hmm, that doesn't tally with yesterday, oh well)
April 12: Second day of boasting rights for Sweden. They only went up by 12, and Denmark went up by 13! Sweden 899, Denmark 23, Norway 128.
April 13th Sweden's death toll is only up by 20 (to 919), Denmark up 12, Norway up 3.
April 14: And they're back. After a quiet Easter, today Sweden's death toll goes up 114 to 1033, while Denmark goes up 14 to 299, Norway goes up 5 to 139.
April 15: Sweden's Covid death toll up 170 to 1203, Denmark up 10 to 309, Norway up 3 to 142.
April 16: Sweden up 130 to 1333, Denmark up 12 to 321, Norway up 7 to 150.
April 17: Sweden up 67 to 1400, Denmark up 15 to 336, Norway up 6 to 158
April 18: Sweden up 111 to 1511, Denmark up 10 to 346, Norway up 5 to 163
April 19 (Sunday): You may have noticed a novel twist in the Swedish numbers, ie that people don't die at weekends. True to form today's figures are lower than usual. Sweden up only 29 to 1540, Denmark up 9 to 355, Norway up 1 to 165.
April 20: Sweden 1580, Denmark 364, Norway 171.
April 21: Sweden up 185 to 1765, Denmark up 6 to 370, Norway up 11 to 182.
April 22: Sweden up 172 to 1937, Denmark up 14 to 384, Norway up 4 to 186
April 23: Sweden up 84 to 2021, Denmark up 10 to 394, Norway up 3 to 189
April 24: Sweden up 131 to 2152, Denmark up 9 to 403, Norway up 6 to 195
Monday April 27: I have decided to stop tracking Sweden. I'm busy, and bored of it, and any conclusions that could possibly be drawn won't be able to be made for months yet. So, with Sweden on a total of 2194 Covid deaths to Denmark's 422 and Norway's 201, I am officially stopping counting.
My figures all come from Worldometers, which seems to be the authoritative and regularly updated source for this information.
I also recommend these excellent graphs on Our World In Data.
April 9 The Commentator: Mother of all shitstorms of Sweden pull it off
April 14 Time: Sweden's Lax Approach Could Be Backfiring
April 14 Forbes: Scientists say Sweden's Strategy Has Failed
April 15 Guardian: Critics question Swedish approach
April 16 NY Times: Sweden Grapples With High Death Toll
April 21 The Spectator: Swedish Experiment Looks Like It's Paying Off
Kev F Sutherland, as well as writing and drawing for The Beano, Marvel, Doctor Who et al, runs Comic Art Masterclasses in schools, libraries & art centres. email for details. His debut graphic novel Findlay Macbeth is out now. Follow Kev on Facebook, Twitter. Promo video here.
My debut graphic novel Findlay Macbeth, available to order now: http://kevfcomicartist.com
ISBN 978-1-5272-5853-2
Kindle version: https://www.amazon.co.uk/gp/product/B086134XB7
Paperback on Amazon: https://www.amazon.co.uk/dp/152725853X
Comixology edition: https://www.comixology.com/Findlay-Macbeth/digital-comic/848416
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